Peer-Reviewed Publications
Articles
1. Adhikari, Bimal, Jeffrey King, and Lie Philip Santoso. Online First. "Ties that Bind? Women Leaders’ Voting Congruence in the United Nations General Assembly." International Relations.
This study explores whether the gender of political leaders shapes countries’ foreign policy preferences, focusing on voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). It argues that women leaders, both legislators and chief executives, tend to exhibit more similar foreign policy positions to one another than their male counterparts. Using data from 184 countries between 1981 and 2014, the analysis finds that states with a higher proportion of female legislators show greater voting congruence in the UNGA. Likewise, countries led by female executives vote more similarly with other female-led states than those led by male or mixed-gender leadership pairs. These patterns persist across regions and regime types, suggesting that women leaders share distinct policy priorities emphasizing diplomacy, cooperation, and social welfare. The study concludes that increasing women’s representation in national legislatures and executive offices not only influences domestic policy but also shapes global diplomacy and international alignment. As more women assume leadership roles, shifts in collective foreign policy behavior are likely to follow, demonstrating that gender representation can have meaningful effects on international relations and multilateral decision-making.
2. Adhikari, Bimal, Assem Bazarbek*, and Madina Shakar*. Accepted. "Post-Soviet Protests: The Causes and Consequences of Public Uprisings in Central Asia." Journal of Eurasian Studies.
This article examines the causes and consequences of public protests in post-Soviet Central Asia, focusing on why individuals in authoritarian regimes choose to engage in mass mobilization despite high personal risks. Using data from the Mass Mobilization Project and in-depth case studies of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, the study finds that economic grievances, especially perceptions of relative deprivation, are the main drivers of protests across the region. While public demonstrations are infrequent, they often arise when citizens feel deprived of economic or political rights compared to what they believe they deserve. The analysis also shows that countries with relatively more political openness, such as Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, experience higher levels of protest activity, while repressive regimes like Turkmenistan and Tajikistan largely suppress dissent through coercion and control over information. Framing by elites and opposition leaders, access to mobilization resources, and political opportunities during power transitions also shape protest dynamics. The study concludes that addressing economic grievances could enhance regional stability, economic development, and potentially foster democratization in the long run. It also calls for further research on the role of digital mobilization and government repression in shaping contemporary protest movements in Central Asia.
3. Adhikari, Bimal, Jeffrey King, and Lie Philip Santoso. 2024. "The Limits of Shame: UN Shaming, NGO Repression, and Women’s Protests." Conflict Management and Peace Science 41(3): 197-217.
This study examines how naming and shaming by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) influences women’s protest activities around the world. It argues that when the UN publicly condemns a country for human rights abuses, it raises awareness of violations, empowers women, and lowers the perceived cost of mobilization, thereby increasing the likelihood of women-led protests. Using data from 142 countries between 1991 and 2009, the authors find that UNHRC shaming significantly increases both violent and non-violent women’s protests, and that its effect is stronger than shaming by non-governmental organizations (NGOs). However, this effect weakens in states where governments repress NGOs, since NGO restrictions limit local organizing capacity and reduce the effectiveness of international pressure. The findings highlight that UN-led shaming can mobilize marginalized groups, especially women, by signaling international support and legitimacy. Yet, when domestic civil society is constrained, the ability of such global campaigns to spur protest and promote change diminishes. Overall, the study underscores the interconnected roles of international advocacy and domestic activism, showing that human rights progress depends not only on external pressure but also on the freedom of local organizations to operate and mobilize citizens.
4. Adhikari, Bimal, and Gento Kato. 2024. "Russian Adventurism and Central Asian Leaders’ Foreign Policy Rhetoric: Evidence from the UN General Debate Corpus.” Research & Politics 11(2): 1-8.
This study analyzes how Central Asian leaders have expressed their foreign policy positions in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) amid Russia’s acts of military aggression against its neighbors. Using text analysis of UNGA speeches from 1992 to 2022, it examines the use of “sovereignty” themes following the Russo-Georgian War (2008), the annexation of Crimea (2014), and the invasion of Ukraine (2022). Historically, Central Asian states avoided references to sovereignty, reflecting their cautious diplomacy toward Russia. However, after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, these leaders increasingly emphasized sovereignty and territorial integrity, signaling greater concern about Russian assertiveness and a subtle shift in their rhetoric. The findings show that while Central Asian countries still tread carefully, they are now more willing to discuss principles that indirectly challenge Russian behavior. This evolution suggests a gradual rebalancing in the region’s foreign policy discourse as these states seek to safeguard their independence and convey their unease to the global community. The study highlights how text-based analysis of UN speeches can reveal nuanced shifts in the diplomatic postures of small states navigating relationships with dominant regional powers.
5. Adhikari, Bimal, Jeffrey King, and Amanda Murdie. 2024. "Examining the Effects of Democratic Backsliding on Human Rights Conditions." Journal of Human Rights 23(3): 267-282.
This study investigates how democratic backsliding affects human rights conditions across countries. While prior research has shown that greater democracy improves human rights, little is known about what happens when democracy erodes. Using data from 157 countries between 1961 and 2019, the authors find that even small declines in democratic quality lead to measurable deteriorations in human rights protections, and larger declines result in more severe and lasting damage. The analysis, based on multiple measures of democracy and human rights, shows that the negative impact of democratic backsliding is consistent across models and remains significant even when accounting for wealth, population size, and conflict. Moreover, the effects persist for up to eight years after the initial backsliding, suggesting long-term harm to human rights once democratic institutions weaken. These results indicate that any erosion of democracy, whether through restrictions on media, a weakened judiciary, or undermined elections, creates conditions for greater repression and fewer protections for citizens. The study highlights the deep interconnection between democracy and human rights and warns that reversing democratic decline is difficult, as the loss of rights tends to endure long after formal political structures have changed.
6. Vadlamannati, Krishna, Bimal Adhikari, and Jeffrey King. 2024. "Global Oil Prices and Fuel Subsidies: The Price of Oil Dependency." The Extractive Industries and Society 17: 101425.
This study explores how global oil prices shape the level of fuel subsidies in oil-dependent countries and why some states maintain subsidies even when oil prices fall. It argues that governments in oil-dependent economies increase fuel subsidies during periods of high oil prices to share resource wealth and maintain political stability. Conversely, when oil prices decline, these governments face fiscal pressure to cut subsidies, which can provoke public discontent. However, the ability to sustain subsidies during low oil price periods depends largely on a country’s foreign exchange reserves. States with large reserves, such as the United Arab Emirates or Norway, can draw on these savings to preserve subsidies and avoid unrest, while others are forced to reduce them. Using data from 161 countries between 1990 and 2014, the analysis finds strong empirical support for these arguments: fuel subsidies rise with both oil dependence and oil prices, and high foreign exchange reserves allow countries to maintain subsidies even during downturns. The findings suggest that fuel subsidy policies are closely tied to the boom-and-bust cycles of global oil markets, and that financial prudence through reserve accumulation helps oil-rich states manage political risks when prices fall.
7. Adhikari, Bimal, Jeffrey King, Krishna Vadlamannati, and Daniel Chachu. 2023. “Why Do Some Natural Resource-Rich Countries Adopt Prudent Fiscal Rules? An Empirical Analysis.” The Extractive Industries and Society 14: 101234.
This study examines why some resource-rich countries adopt strong fiscal rules to manage their natural resource wealth while others do not. It argues that the likelihood of adopting such rules depends on three key factors: the extent of a country’s dependence on natural resource rents, the quality of its domestic institutions, and the level of external pressure it faces from organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Using data from 166 countries between 1985 and 2015, the authors find that countries with greater reliance on natural resource revenues are generally less likely to adopt prudent fiscal rules, as resource wealth often fuels rent-seeking and weakens fiscal discipline. However, this negative relationship diminishes in countries with strong institutions that provide checks and balances. Additionally, IMF fiscal conditionality, such as requirements tied to loans, significantly increases the likelihood that resource-rich states will implement fiscal rules, helping to counteract the effects of the “resource curse.” The results are robust across various models and data sources. Overall, the study suggests that while resource wealth can undermine fiscal responsibility, good governance and international oversight can encourage more sustainable fiscal management in resource-dependent economies.
8. Adhikari, Bimal, Jin Mun Jeong, and Dursun Peksen. 2022. “Compliant or Defiant? Economic Sanctions and the United Nations General Assembly Voting by Target Countries.” International Interactions. 48(3): 397-422.
This study investigates how economic sanctions influence the foreign policy behavior of targeted states, focusing on their voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). It argues that sanctions, rather than compelling compliance, tend to intensify tensions between sender and target countries, leading targets to adopt more defiant positions. Using data on U.S. sanctions and UNGA votes for over 150 countries from 1984 to 2006, the analysis finds that U.S. sanctions, especially those imposing severe economic costs, are associated with greater voting dissimilarity between the United States and its targets. Instead of aligning with the sanctioning power, targeted governments often use the UNGA as a platform to voice opposition and rally domestic support by blaming external pressures for internal hardships. The findings challenge the conventional wisdom that economic coercion promotes policy convergence. Instead, sanctions appear to foster diplomatic alienation and policy divergence. By highlighting the unintended political consequences of sanctions, the study emphasizes the need for policymakers to consider the broader foreign policy costs of coercive economic measures, which can undermine long-term relationships and weaken the sender’s influence in international institutions like the UN.
9. Adhikari, Bimal, Jeffrey King, and Lie Philip Santoso. 2022. “A BIT of Help? The Divergent Effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Women’s Rights.” Journal of Human Rights 21(4): 419-433.
This study examines how bilateral investment treaties affect women’s rights in host countries, arguing that their impact differs across types of rights. It finds that such treaties tend to worsen women’s economic rights while improving women’s political rights. As developing states compete to attract foreign investors, they often lower labor protections and weaken regulations, creating a “race to the bottom” that disproportionately harms women, especially in low-wage and vulnerable sectors. Once signed, these treaties lock in poor conditions and limit governments’ ability to strengthen labor standards for fear of costly legal disputes with investors. However, the resulting economic grievances, particularly among women, may increase social unrest and pressure governments to compensate by expanding women’s political rights, such as voting access, representation, and participation in decision-making. Using cross-national data from 1981 to 2011, the study finds consistent evidence supporting this divergence: bilateral investment treaties are associated with declining economic rights but improving political rights for women. The findings highlight how global economic agreements can reshape domestic rights dynamics, showing that states may trade off one dimension of women’s empowerment for another, balancing economic liberalization with limited political concessions.
10. Adhikari, Bimal. 2021. “UN Human Rights Shaming and Foreign Aid Allocation.” Human Rights Review 22(2): 133-154.
This study examines whether public condemnation of human rights abuses by the United Nations affects how donor countries distribute foreign aid. It argues that when states are shamed by the UN Human Rights Council for poor human rights practices, donor governments respond by channeling more aid through non-governmental organizations and civil society groups rather than directly to the recipient governments. This approach allows donors to promote human rights improvements without endangering their strategic interests or relationships with repressive regimes. The study also finds that this effect becomes stronger when media coverage of the UN’s human rights shaming is extensive, as public awareness increases pressure on democratic donor governments to act. Using data from 2004 to 2011, the analysis shows that UN-shamed countries receive significantly more NGO aid but no reduction in government-to-government aid. The findings suggest that while donors use aid to encourage better human rights practices, they balance these goals with their foreign policy interests. Overall, the study highlights the influence of international institutions and media on shaping aid policies, showing that public exposure of human rights abuses can indirectly redirect aid to actors more capable of promoting reform.
11. Adhikari, Bimal. 2019. “Power Politics and Foreign Aid Delivery Tactics.” Social Science Quarterly 100(5): 1523-1539.
This study explores how countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly influences the amount of government-to-government aid they receive from donor states. It finds that major powers such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan tend to use foreign aid as a strategic tool, rewarding countries that align with their foreign policy positions and reducing aid to those that vote differently in the UN. In contrast, smaller donor countries base their aid decisions more on recipient needs rather than political alignment. Using data from 2004 to 2011, the study shows that when recipients’ votes diverge from those of major powers, they receive significantly less direct aid, though the total amount of aid remains largely unchanged. The findings highlight how aid can serve both developmental and political purposes, with major donors using it to maintain influence in global affairs. Encouraging more aid to be delivered through non-state or multilateral channels may reduce political bias and improve aid effectiveness in achieving development goals.
12. Adhikari, Bimal. 2019. “United Nations General Assembly Voting and Foreign Aid Bypass.” International Politics 56(4): 514-535.
Foreign aid is often portrayed as a tool for humanitarian assistance and development, yet it also reflects strategic and political interests. Donor countries, especially major powers, use aid not only to promote growth but also to influence international behavior. When recipient states oppose a donor’s positions in global forums such as the United Nations General Assembly, they are less likely to receive direct, government-to-government assistance. Instead, more of their aid is delivered through non-state channels such as NGOs, multilateral organizations, and private contractors. This process, known as aid bypass, allows donors to maintain developmental engagement while reducing recipients’ control over funds. It helps prevent corruption and political misuse while signaling disapproval of governments that resist alignment. The strategy underscores that foreign aid is not just about generosity -- it is also a diplomatic tool that rewards cooperation and constrains defiance. Even seemingly symbolic acts, like voting in the UN, can influence how and through whom aid is delivered. In this way, the politics of foreign aid reveal a deeper intersection between power, diplomacy, and development.
Book Chapter
1. Adhikari, Bimal. 2023. "The Impact of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank on the United Nations." In Global Institutions in a Time of Power Transition, edited by Kendall Stiles and Joel E. Oestreich. Edward Elgar Publishing: The ACUNS Series on the UN System.
This chapter explores how China’s creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) affects the United Nations and the broader system of global governance. It argues that China’s growing economic power has not translated into proportional influence within existing multilateral institutions like the UN, IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank, which remain dominated by the United States and its allies. Frustrated by limited representation and constrained by Western control over these institutions’ bureaucracies, China has pursued a dual strategy: seeking greater leadership roles within the UN while simultaneously building alternative institutions such as the AIIB. The AIIB serves both economic and political purposes; it provides infrastructure financing without the political conditionalities attached to Western loans, and it enhances China’s global legitimacy and influence. The Bank’s recruitment of senior staff from Western-led institutions has lent it international credibility while ensuring its alignment with Chinese interests. The chapter finds that the AIIB’s emergence has pressured existing institutions to reform and cooperate, as seen in their willingness to co-finance projects and include the Chinese renminbi in IMF reserve currencies. Overall, the AIIB reflects China’s effort to reshape multilateralism, offering a competing model of global governance that blends financial pragmatism with strategic influence.
*Undergraduate student at the time of writing.